3 posts tagged “running back”
Been a while, I appologize. But lets jump right into the meat of the discussion, the NFL Draft. I'm going to avoid doing mocks, or giving generalizations, but instead I'll try to look at some of the sub top-15 prospects, and give my take on how they played, their strengths and weaknesses, and where they may end up going (and how they may end up doing). I'm going to start with one Felix Jones, runningback, Arkansas. Jones sat behind Darren McFadden on the depth chart for two seasons, but put up impressive numbers. He has had over 1,150 yards two seasons running. However, he has only carried the ball 387 times in his career. Two running backs put up the same number of rushing attempts this season in college football (Ray Rice and Kevin Smith), in fact over 120 runningbacks had more carries this season than Jones. Even in the NFL, a prototypical split-back like Julius Jones had 46 more carries this season than Jones.
With that being said, Felix Jones is no slouch. His nearly 3,000 yards as a backup is impressive, and Jones also returned kicks and punts, a demanding activity. With the return success of Maurice Jones Drew (another <6'0'' <210 lbs running back), its likely that Jones will get some views in returning kicks on the next level. Jones has also shown his stride to be great, he's able to really put the speed on when he needs it and use what height he has coming out of the pile. That being said, he needs to show he get hit and come back from it. He played in the SEC, which is a bonus, but he played in the Wild Hogs formation where he wasn't even the most focused target. He bounces off tackles rather than plowing through them, and makes a better outside guy than inside guy.
Jones impressed with a solid 4.47 40' and a great 20' drill. I think Jones will be a change of pace back, and if he can prove that he can catch in the NFL, a 3rd down back. Like Reggie Bush, and Adrian Peterson, Jones runs upright a lot. He has a whole lot of power coming from his legs and can move like lightning in the open field. But in the redzone or against tough front sevens, I think he will have problems. Jones will not be drafted to be a primary back, but he will probably be drafted 2nd-3rd round, maybe the first if a team like Dallas really wants him. Dallas would be fine to pair him up with Barber, especially given Dallas' plethora of picks and lack of need. A team like St. Louis or Kansas City could use him as well, as both teams need to lighten the load on their primary runner (who is a between the tackles guy). Unfortunately for both teams, they have more important needs, and secondary runners can be found in the later rounds.
My prediction is that Jones goes to Dallas, either in the late first, or early second. He will probably play out 4 years or so in Dallas, possibly earning the starting spot. But I do not think he will be able to lead a team in carries, at least not for a long time. Whever he goes, he will add an excellent special teams boost and a great split-back situational guy.
By this time last year, the game was being dominated by running backs. LT was breaking records, LJ was breaking
Speaking of Minnesota, the now-injured rookie phenom Adrian Peterson has racked up 44% of the Vikings total offense. And he is also almost 200 yards the superior to Fast Willie Parker, a sleeper pick for the rushing title this year. And last year's greats? LT is 7th in yards, with a tie for first in TD's (8) but that number is way out of wack, given the 4 TD's he scored against the Raiders. At this rate, 1 TD every other game, LT could end the season with only 12 trips to the endzone. Why? Well part of that problem is that the San Diego passing game hasn't been up to par this year. The Chargers rank 25th in pass offense, despite playing in a conference without a top 10 pass defense (Denver is top at 13th). Rivers has thrown interceptions in all but two of his games, and both those contests were W's for the Super Chargers. But even when Rivers has been great (vs Green Bay, 3 TD's 300+ yards, 1 int) his team has suffered. I blame coaching, frankly the fact that LT has had 4 games with fewer than 20 carries (and went 2-2 in those games) is a sham.
What about Kansas City? Well, first off I've never been sold on Larry Johnson. He is a solid back, but he had an amazing O-line pressing for him. With the O-line gone, this team has been floating around with only its defense holding it up. Ask the Bears how well that one works for you. Currently LJ is a shocking 16th in yards, and he has only reached the endzone 3 times this year, not good for an offense that is now starting its second QB of the year (albiet due to injury). Damon Huard didn't help by tossing 11 interceptions tied for 27th in the league with Tony Romo and Eli Manning (but better than Drew Brees, who would have thought that would be the case). It is painfully clear that the Kansas City offense is awful this year outside of Dwayne Bowe. In games in which the Chiefs gave up over 15 points, they have gone 1-5.
Meanwhile in the NFC West, or as it shall now be called the "Mediocre-Tailback Division (MTD)", things are just
The MTD has 12 rushing TD's between the big 4, while those same backs have 10 fumbles. That pretty much establishes why this division has been just awful this year. A rash of injuries to the 9'ers and Rams explains their woes, but what about the Cards and Seahawks? Well, Edgerin James is having a fine year except for those fumbles. The failures of his quarterbacks to remain on their feet hasn't helped, but with future O-line improvements, the Cardinals may be digging themselves slowly out of the pits. The 'Hawks are done with Alexander after this season, watch out for a rookie back in Seattle with their late 1st round pick (because the 'Hawks have the division after last monday).
So, outside of the potential new back in Seattle, where else will new runners show up? Michael Turner will be starting somewhere next year. I think we'll see new backs in Chicago, Green Bay, probably Tampa Bay, New York (J E T S), Denver (because Travis Henry will be gone for the year) and Cleveland. Frankly I wouldn't be surprised to see a few other big changes in the backfield, but anyway it lands, it will be an interesting run next season.
Extra bonus points for anyone who gets the title.
Thus a lot of the offenses may be balanced on the shoulders of Willis McGahee. Now, I've never been a McGahee fan. Although I never like to see a player go down to injury, I didn't miss him when I was pulling for the Buckeyes in the National Championship from 2001. The Bills took a risk on drafting him, it paid off at first with a pretty solid year. But the numbers can be decieving. I do not think McGahee will have a good year in Baltimore, and here is why. Against solid defenses, McGahee struggles, and he typically puts up top numbers against lower tier guys. In the AFC East, thats ok. New England's defense was decent to good, as was Miami's. But New York's wasn't. Now he goes up against the brutal linebacking corp of Cleveland, and the solid defensive front 7 of Pittsburgh twice a year. And unlike in Buffalo, where he had Lee Evans and until last year Eric Moulds, in Baltimore he does not have a passing game to distract defenses.
In 2004, McGahee rushed for 1128 yards and 13 TD's. Those are pretty solid numbers. In 2004, the top 10 rush defenses were Pittsburgh, Washington, San Diego, Denver, New York (Jets) New England, Buffalo, Baltimore, Atlanta and Dallas. Given that McGahee has never rushed for under 100 yards when he starts against the Jets (which is weird), Mcgahee did not have a good year against top 10 defenses. He had 79 yards against Pittsburgh, in a game where the Steelers (at 14-1) played very few starters. He had 37 yards against the Patritos, and 58 against the Ravens. He managed to break 100 on 5 teams with rush defenses in the bottom 10 of the league, which is not impressive in itself.
Moving on to 2005 and the Losman-Holcomb year (rather than the Bledsoe-Losman year), the trend stays very much the same. McGahee rushed for 100 5 times. That year the top ten were San Diego, Pittsburgh, Denver, Carolina, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, New England, Baltimore and Arizona (how??). McGahee rushed for over 100 against Houston, Atlanta, New York twice and the Patriots, so one against a top 10 defense. Against other top 10 teams he went like this- 39 against San Diego, 39 against Denver, 53 against Carolina, 34 against Tampa Bay, 66 against KC, and one game against the Pats where he was injured, running 8 times for 3 yards. Those numbers do not look good, even thoug he managed 1247 yards, more than his 2004 season total. Houston, Atlanta and the Jets all had bottom 10 rush defenses (Houston at 32).
Now we hit 2006, the last year for McGahee in Buffalo. The top ten rush defenses last year: Minnesota, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, New England, Chicago, San Diego, Miami, Atlanta and Dallas. McGahee failed to top 100 against any of them, though he did get real darn close against Miami with 91. He ran for 78 in Minnesota, 23 against the Ravens, 63 against the Jags, 59 and 70 against New England, 50 against the Bears and 26 against the Chargers. He only broke 100 twice, against the 24th ranked rush defense of the New York Jets. So he regressed, while the rest of the team progressed. The Bills were one or two wins from the playoffs, the best they have been in a few years, yet McGahee was awful.
So, when Baltimore goes to play the defenses of Cleveland, Pittsburgh, New England, San Diego, Buffalo (maybe) Miami, Seattle and maybe Indianapolis, he will struggle. If he struggles, the Ravens will falter. In the AFC North, the top and bottom are going to be really close this year, so a few losses could decide everything. On the upside, the Ravens play the Jets in week 7, so you know McGahee is good for at least one 100 yard rushing game.
